Russia will deal with Abkhazia and South Ossetia “the Taiwan way:” Expert
After the Kosovo precedent, Russia will treat its relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia “the Taiwan way,” argues Mikhail Alexandrov, head of the Caucasus Department at the CIS Institute. Speaking at a roundtable discussion “Russia and the Caucasian Agglomeration of Problems — Perspectives of the Parade of Sovereignties,” Alexandrov called this scenario most adequate. He reminded that the European Union has its trade mission on Taiwan, and the US have deployed on the island a military base.
At the same time, Alexandrov contends, Russia will not go as far as to formally recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr. In his words, recognition of these territories is illogical whereas Moscow does not bow to the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. He does not exclude that, choosing the “Taiwan way,” Russia will open its missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Economic cooperation with these territories will be extended, Alexandrov forecasts.
The issue of official recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will become urgent if Georgia joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Now Tbilisi has taken a course towards joining NATO, and if this happens, Russia will recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia and bring its troops into their territories. Georgia is now before the Rubicon: it is either to [refrain from] joining NATO, or lose the territories, Alexandrov maintains.
He argues that position of some Georgian politicians who raise the issue of Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is shortsighted. “They don't understand that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS will automatically untie Russia's hands.”
20:52 03/12/2008
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