Sergey Markov: OSCE and PACE furthered Abkhazia’s independence

                             

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Dec 7, a news conference of director of the Political Research Institute, member of the Public Chamber of Russia, deputy chairman of the Public Chamber’s commission for international cooperation and public democracy, professor at MSU Dr. Sergey Markov was held in the Abkhazian capital Sukhum. REGNUM publishes the conference transcript.

What is the purpose of your coming here: is it a private or official visit?

“My visit has a quite understandable purpose: first, we have for a long time been supporting the people of Abkhazia in their striving to establish an acceptable for them way of living on their land. We are trying to help them in doing this; in particular, by restoring normal transport communications, by ensuring that a normal trade is established, and other things: for example, there were problems with medications at our customs service. The task of the Public Chamber is to protect the rights of the Russian citizens, including those in the unrecognized neighboring republics.”

“We have an Expert Group at the Public Chamber that also deals with these matters. Ultimately, I believe that we will ensure that nothing would torment residents of Abkhazia and Russian citizens when they go through border terminals with their persimmon, mandarin oranges and some other cargoes, as they are tormented now, and that the Russian tourists would not be tormented at the peak of the tourist season. I think that we are able to solve the issue by common effort, together with other issues arising in the republic: you understand that these are communications, highways; I think that another bridge has to be built across the border so that you could cross it without a traffic jam.”

“Since the Olympic Games are to be held in Sochi, we need to take care of how Abkhazia is to join the big project. The Olympics in Sochi is a good reason to renovate the south of Russia, create new transport communications. There are a lot of questions in this sphere, including the way in which Abkhazia is to be included in the business.”

“But there is also another aspect to the visit that is very time-sensitive. We know that on Dec 10, the working group on Kosovo has to present some new results. We realize that Kosovo’s independence may be announced, and it is possible that Russia recognizes Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdnestr. It is possible that Georgia reacts in a harsh way. That is why I am interested in the situation here, in Abkhazia, for from our point of view, we have to do our best to preserve peace.”

“There is yet another reason to my visit. We get controversial information about the election campaign going on there, about police dispersing a demonstration in Tbilisi – this apparently was one of the cruelest clashes of demonstrators with police on the post-Soviet space. And information we get from there is contradictory. We stand for the maximum preservation of peace. This is the reason of my coming.”

How democratic was election to the State Duma of the Russian Federation? International organizations disagree on the subject.

“I think that the election efficiently reflected the political will of the people of the Russian Federation. The political will of the people of the Russian Federation is for the policy of Vladimir Putin to be continued, regardless of who is the president. That is why the election had a nature of a referendum, which many have mentioned already. This is a referendum on the continuation of Putin’s political course. This is not a plebiscite but an election that creates an institutional foundation for the political course of Putin to be continued. The institutional system will be represented based on the parliamentary majority. There is a popular opinion that the Russian Constitution is pro-president; but actually the Russian Constitution assigns a great power to the parliament majority at forming a government. As a result of the election, a solid Putin parliamentary majority has been formed in Russia, on which foundation a Putin government will be built. This is the main political result of the election. It reflected this political will very precisely.”

“This is not to say that there were no violations. There were violations, but I would distinguish them by several types: 1) using an administrative resource at a regional level, especially in some national republics, in particular, in the North Caucasus ones; 2) unbalanced work of TV channels in reporting on the work of the ruling party and opposition. That is, speaking generally, one could tell that the Russian election was 80% democratic. Many compared it with the parliamentary election in Ukraine. Although there was more competition in the Ukrainian election, the election there was held based not on the Constitution but on an all-state coup performed by a group of radical extremists.”

“The legitimacy of the State Duma has increased. First, it is the large number of voters. Political parties are largely in their places. We can see stability of the party system. We have received statements of various observers, most of whom acknowledge that the election was quite democratic. There were several groups that doubted its being democratic: first, communists, second, parties of the pro-western orientation, and third, the international observers connected with the PACE and OSCE. All this is an evidence of the crisis of international monitoring system. Integrity of the international monitoring proved to be an order lower than the integrity and fairness of the election. This raises a very serious question about the role of Russia in the international organizations.”

Since presidential election is going to be held in March, what would the future of Putin be after such a tremendous success of United Russia at the Duma election, when the people voted not for the United Russia itself but for Putin, and this was taken as a referendum of trust to the Putin’s political course?

“I think that Vladimir Putin will be the most popular politician, leader of parliamentary majority based on which a government will be built, and a leader, also of the constitutional majority. He will be a symbol of a political course. Besides, I think, he will take some public office, like one of the speaker of the Federation Council. In his sphere of activities, Vladimir Putin could become involved in big business, not as a businessman. He might become a leader of Russia’s business club, for instance, a club of sponsors of Sochi Olympics. The least task that the president has to solve is preserving a continuity of political course, of political tasks, so that Russia could further develop without turmoil. The president’s ultimate goal is creating a model of political system.” “The legitimacy of the State Duma has increased. First, it is the large number of voters. Political parties are largely in their places. We can see stability of the party system. We have received statements of various observers, most of whom acknowledge that the election was quite democratic. There were several groups that doubted its being democratic: first, communists, second, parties of the pro-western orientation, and third, the international observers connected with the PACE and OSCE. All this is an evidence of the crisis of international monitoring system. Integrity of the international monitoring proved to be an order lower than the integrity and fairness of the election. This raises a very serious question about the role of Russia in the international organizations.”

With the Olympics in Sochi ahead, there are two opposing viewpoints on Abkhazia: that the Olympics will give an impetus to economic development of Abkhazia, lead to a certain consensus — or harm it?

“With the advent of Vladimir Putin, a decided position has been formed that one does not betray one’s own folk. From our point of view, the residents of Abkhazia are essentially our folk. They are legally Russian citizens, they became thrown into a military conflict by cataclysms, and we have not only a moral right to betray them, but we also understand that it would not be rational. It is not wise to betray your friends, and a country cannot be a great one if it does not support its friends. That is why I think that the destiny of Abkhazia will not be made a trump card in the struggle for the Olympics, especially since the opponent side is not behaving in a civilized manner.”

“The Georgian side broke certain agreements it made with the Russian leadership after Mikhail Saakashvili had come to power. By doing this, it has questioned its capacity to hold to its agreements. I think that the issue of recognition of Abkhazia is an undecided one so far. It can be solved very quickly in connection with the Kosovo casus, it can be postponed, but it is not closely connected to the Sochi Olympics. And the economic integration of Abkhazia is real. The Olympic movement is a peace movement, an international movement. All nations have to be involved in it, including the Abkhaz people. It cannot be isolated from the Olympic Games, for the latter are going to be held a few kilometers away from Abkhazian territory. So the very principle of the Olympic movement demands that Abkhazian economy and residents of Abkhazia be integrated in the process.”

To what extent the recognition of Abkhazia is dependent on the independence of Kosovo? How will Russia treat recognition of Abkhazia if the process of recognition of Kosovo is frozen?

“I think that these things are tied to each other very closely. We believe that Abkhazia’s and Kosovo’s issues are very similar ones, that if there is a difference, then it speaks rather in favor of Abkhazia’s, not Kosovo’s, independence. Because Abkhazians, unlike Kosovo Albanians, did not come to this land; they have lived on it for hundreds, thousands of years. Because Abkhaz people, unlike Kosovo’s Albanians, have no other statehood, and they have never succumbed to be part of Georgia. That is why we believe that Abkhazia has a bigger chance. ‘

’At the same time, it is not so easy for Russia to carry this burden. Many countries are lobbying interests of Kosovo’s Albanians. But if our partners decide to recognize Kosovo, I think that recognition of Abkhazia will become a realistic option. If Kosovo declares its independence, and the independence is recognized by Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, I don’t think that it will somehow change Russia’s position. But if Kosovo is recognized by the United States and Great Britain, then it will be a totally different story that will make us face the need to use this option.”

“It is not a neutral question for Russia. Not being ready to go to the end in supporting its allies will, of course, seriously undermine Russia’s international reputation. At the same time, I cannot say that we want to evade this problem. We think that there is no need to hurry. We need to ensure that such regions as Kosovo and Abkhazia develop normally, that their blockade is lifted and their normal economic, social, and political development is on the way.”

To what extent the possibility that Russia and US will be able to agree is real? That both Kosovo and Albania are recognized at the same time, on certain conditions?

“Not only Kosovo and Abkhazia but also South Ossetia, Transdnestr, CFE Treaty, Iran’s nuclear program, and many other pawns will be placed on this ‘chessboard’. If the agreement is reached, then most probably, it will state that nothing should be changed, that people should be allowed to live. And why there is a need of a Muslim state in the middle of Europe, I do not quite comprehend. OSCE and PACE have seriously contributed to the independence of Abkhazia by their unprecedented cynical assessment of the Russian election. They greatly contributed to the deterioration of relations, i.e., they have led the Russian leadership to a more decisive stand on Abkhazia – paradox, but it is a real fact.”

If recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia becomes a fact, in what borders will it be? In fact, a part of Abkhazia is now not controlled by its government. The same is true of South Ossetia. Will recognition mean some sort of war for the liberation of these territories?

“You have emphasized one of the real problems. There are all signs of a self-sufficient state in Abkhazia: control over a large part of its territory; the Abkhazians have managed to overcome such difficulties as election, democratic creation of the power structures. In the situation when everybody was teaching Georgians democracy – in tens of thousands of seminars – Abkhaz people have managed the situation on their own. I so far do not see a precise solution to this problem.”

How would you comment on the Russia’s introducing a moratorium on CFE?

“I think that Russia’s introducing a CFE moratorium is an attempt to preserve CFE Treaty. Russia is undoubtedly interested in CFE Treaty. CFE Treaty is a cornerstone of maintaining European security, and it has necessarily to be preserved. However, its preservation in its present form is absolutely unacceptable. CFE Treaty has to be ratified by all countries who have signed it. That is, it has to be of a legally binding nature for them. Other countries, too, have to join the treaty, particularly, the Baltic countries. And Russia has to be guaranteed a more free movement of forces in the North Caucasus region.”