Vafa Guluzade: Moscow does not want peace between Azerbaijan Armenia
In an interview to Analitika.az former state advisor for international relations, political scientist Vafa Guluzade says that “Armenia has no personal opinion, it does everything as Russia says.” “Even if Armenia is pressured by the US into concluding peace agreement, the Nagorno Karabakh Armenians will reject this peace. The objective of all these talks is to give the Azerbaijani lands to Armenia. However, Russia does not want this. In fact, it does not want peace, at all, as in such case Armenia may ask it to withdraw its bases from its territory and then may join NATO. The resolution of the conflict will also allow Armenia to join regional energy and transport projects. Russia does not want this to happen. Thats why it is trying to drag the peace process for as long as possible,” says Guluzade.
On the other hand, “the US wants the Nagorno Karabakh conflict to be resolved as quickly as possible. The Americans want to give part of the Azerbaijani territories to Armenia and hope that Russia may agree to this. They do not realize that the Russians will not accept this either. If you remember, once Azerbaijan has already agreed to compromise peace but that was followed by a terrorist act in Armenia. Russia is still a strong player and can resist any peace agreement.” Guluzade suggests waiting for 10 years more “in 10 years Russia will get weaker, NATO will grow stronger in the whole Caucasus and only then will Azerbaijan be able to attain relatively favorable peace. The other scenario is that Russia may grow stronger and ‘get back’ Azerbaijan and the other CIS countries. But I think that the first scenario is more realistic,” says Guluzade.
He notes that “it is impossible to conduct a referendum on Nagorno Karabakhs status.” This will require the return of all refugees to Nagorno Karabakh and refugees will agree to return only after the conclusion of a peace agreement and given the protection of the Azerbaijani army. In this situation to agree to the referendum means to give Karabakh to the Armenians. If so, why to negotiate at all? Let them sign a statement and say: “we are making a generous gift to the Armenians.”
12:04 06/30/2006
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