Viktor Yakubyan: US-Armenia: Kosovo precedent vs precedent of Nagorno Karabakh

                             

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REGNUM publishes article of Viktor Yakubyan on the current situation in Armenia and implications of the Kosovo precedent for the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement.

“New president – new reality”

Speaking of the outcomes of the presidential election of 2008 in Armenia and post-election turmoil, Yakubyan states that president-elect of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan whose inauguration is due March 9, will enter the office in the situation of rough internal and external pressures.

“The subject performing internal pressure is a huge, in Armenian terms, strata of population that has lost any hope to solve its social problems.”

“The external pressure will be performed by a western group of players, led by the USA and personally chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement Matthew Bryza, who indulges himself in serenely and systematically commenting on internal political processes in Armenia.”

“Unlike Russia and France, who are US' partners in the business of conflict resolution around Nagorno Karabakh, the USA, with their inherent practicality, have combined in Bryza a role of mediator and bureaucrat responsible for relations with the region's countries in general, which allows him to influence the situation without restraint.”

“Russian co-chair Yuri Merzlyakov, for instance, has not yet once mentioned internal political processes in Armenia and Azerbaijan that would not relate to the Karabakh problem. This point is extremely important, it allows the USA to, essentially, blackmail the conflict parties, in case Washington is interested.”

“By the way, the latest statements of Mr Bryza worth a study, in order to realize that a self-respecting state has to long ago have said to this vagarious young man whatever it thinks about him, and demand that the USA send another mediator. Unfortunately, however, today's Armenia is not such a state, which, undoubtedly, cannot be regarded as an accomplishment of the ruling regime.”

Speaking of the current opposition leader, first president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Yakubyan notes that, in case Ter-Petrosyan continues following his tough line, he is going to join ranks of riots participants who are currently under arrest. This, however, is not a solution for the official Armenian authorities.

“Ter-Petrosyan's arrest would not a bit alleviate problems of authorities personified by Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. Although the former did everything he could to maximally isolate his successor from being part of the rough action against opposition masses, Serzh Sargsyan is fully responsible for the events.”

“For already a decade, he has been perceived in a popular conscience as a closest assiciate of the acting president. What about the outer players, they will not go into details of all the intricacies of the Armenian elite, and will bluntly hold responsible exactly the figure that will enter the fairway of their interests.”

“External circumstances”

“Even an unsophisticated observer interested in Armenia could notice that Georgian commentators were most active among those speaking of the Armenian events. The day after the tragic crackdown on a demonstration in Yerevan, a whole number of Georgian politicians and experts dashed to actively argue about the morality of the Armenian elite, appealing to it to refrain from ill-usage of their own people.”

“In no time, even special non-governmental organizations emerged that were commenting on the events 'in the friendly Armenia' in a real-time mode. As if it had not been in Tbilisi, shortly before the Armenian events, that authorities cracked down on a 100,000-people opposition rally, using clubs, sonic guns, rubber bullets, and other special means. We then forecast that the Georgian events would influence situation in Armenia.”

“In both cases, the situation developed by a similar scenario: tiring several-thousand-strong opposition rallies, transforming into a direct confrontation with the authorities, and, as a result – the use of force, a tough crackdown on demonstrators, and declaration of the state of emergency. With the only difference that there were, luckily, no victims in Tbilisi. How did the people in Yerevan get killed, is still a question.”

“Nevertheless, what happened after the suppression of the rallies – is unparalleled. Having at hand a bitter but successful Saakashvili's experience of coping with internal political crisis, Kocharyan chose not to follow it, having essentially decided to push his own plan to its logical end.”

“To remind, Saakashvili, after consultations in the US embassy, announced early presidential election, thereby cooling down the intensity of emotions and winning precious time to enhance his positions.”

“Armenian political elite, by contrast, contrary to the Georgian-US logic, is today not busy with pre-election business, but is rather tensely awaiting the end of emergency state, being subjected to all 'the charms of information vacuum'.”

“Instead of positioning himself as a guarantor of protection of interests of all the population stratas, some kind of sweetening a pill and, at least, announcing an early parliamentary election, Kocharyan blamed a significant social strata of a lack of culture, as if nurturing this very culture by means of various civil institutions and public organizations had nothing to do with the acting authorities. <…>”

“At the time when Armenia's authorities are persuading the country's people of their lack of refinement, symbolic events are unfolding on the international arena — events that are directly related to Armenia. Vice president of the International Crisis Group organization Alain Deletroz has recently published an article 'Independence of Kosovo: What is the Problem?' in which he quite coolly attempted to explain to a reader that all the alarming signals of the Russian analytical community about the perilousness of the Kosovo precedent are nothing else than groundless 'hysteria'.”

“In Deletroz's opinion, Kosovo's independence will lead to no negative consequences, neither in the Balkans, nor on the European continent in general, for the development was predetermined by criminal policy of Milosevic who oppressed the Albanian minority while he ruled. Moreover, the expert claims, the problem will be solved when Serbia and Kosovo join EU.”

“The only thing that is worrying Deletroz is the possibility of clumsy action on the part of Kosovars, who can accidentally set on fire some Christian Orthodox church that has to the moment escaped destruction.”

“The expert categorically advises them not to do it, since the consequences might influence historical fate of the second independent Albanian state and its European prospects. It is not clear, however, if Deletroz specially emphasizes that he sees no problem, why is he worrying so much?”

“'So what are the problems?' To this question of Deletroz, we could pose a counter-question: 'And whose the problems are?' The Serbs' problems are quite obvious: they have a 'body' part 'amputated' – no doubt, a problem part, that was aching and troubled – and, nevertheless, an amputation was performed, and a rude and unceremonious at that.”

“Deletroz realizes that Serbia hurts, but he advises her to endure. The expert has nothing to advise to Serbs who continue to reside in the northern regions of the separated land, although they also suffer quite obvious problems and threats.”

“While Serbia is taking truly hurting pains to 'sew back' its former province, at least by railway 'threads', Serbs isolated from their motherland take more radical steps: they capture a regional court building, controlled by international inspectors, and become victims of timely Ukrainian peacekeepers.”

“So far not-so-critical but alarming trends are starting to reveal in Macedonia and Montenegro. Albanians have fully realized the potency of their supporting factor, and claim quite obvious pretensions.”

“Of course, one cannot but agree that all these problems can be solved as decisively by a controlling agency. Who could imagine that UN missionaries would be in rough manner demanding to disrupt (!) cargo and passenger railway connection between any subjects, in order to actually ascertain the split between them. Almost nobody is concerned at that, that a large regional hospital is being left without medical supplies.”

“What are the EU and UN problems? So far, they are only operational and image ones. So far, they are trying to 'inconspicuously' double each other. Another problem of the international organizations is how to distribute between themselves the functions of 'violators' of their own earlier adopted resolutions and proclaimed principles.'

“The situation is an extremely unpleasant one, however, the solution has already been found: the EU mission will violate decisions of the UN Security Council, and UN mission will smoothly retreat, defying all possible European principles related to human rights protection. The parties will obviously abstain from criticizing each other.”

“Deletroz, too, will remain silent. By the logic of a professional conflict regulator, which he is, all these are the process' limitations. Whereas the general goal is to ultimately resolve a once bloody conflict that led to the impossibility of Albanian minority's further residing within a Serbian state, of which Serbs themselves are to blame.”

“And again, as the western experts explain to us, this a practically unique case that cannot be projected on other conflicts, ESPECIALLY (!) on the post-Soviet space – here, the principle of territorial integrity of states in inviolable, and the blood that was once spilled, obviously, is not so 'imprinted' in the peoples' memory and pride.”

“Today, a half of the world that has recognized independence of Kosovo and is living in an uncomfortable proximity to the 'Kosovo precedent' is craving that the subject be dropped. It is only possible by giving birth to a new precedent – a contrary and a balancing one.”

“We hereby return to Armenia that is, as we described above, is suffering under crossfire of US functionary Matthew Bryza, who alters statements on Armenia's internal policy and comments on prospects of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution.”

“It is important to comprehend that if Serbs continue to compactly reside in the North Kosovo, there is no single Azerbaijani in Nagorno Karabakh, which is an argument in favor of the validity of more expedient establishment of Karabakh's sovereignty, compared to that of the separation of Kosovo from Serbia.”

“Nevertheless, this is what the US mediator diplomat broadcasts: 'The complex of principal suggestions of the OSCE Minsk Group should lead to the return of territories to Azerbaijan, return of refugees, including also the corridor connecting Karabakh and Armenia, and presence of international peacekeepers.'”

“As we can see, not a single word is said herein on the future status of Nagorno Karabakh. If one could suppose that the plan envisions participation of Ukrainian peacekeepers in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict zone (luckily, they have already passed a test for quite concrete fitness for Karabakh), we can only guess about the methods that would allow to populate Shushi, Stepanakert, Lachin, and other settlements with Azerbaijanis who will promptly start erecting there mosques and tea-houses.”

“The Azerbaijani side, too, did not make anyone wait. In an extremely shrewd and sudden fashion, it got through at the UN GA a resolution prepared several years ago on the situation in the conflict zone, containing maximally profitable for Azerbaijan theses. Remarkably, the document that had been several times turned down in the General Assembly, this time was adopted.”

“One can only smile at the optimistic utterings of Armenian bureaucrats, including foreign minister Vardan Oskanyan, about this resolution's having only a recommendation character, whereas the conflict is being decided by the OSCE MG, whose co-chairs have not supported the Azerbaijani initiative in the UN GA. For the OSCE MG co-chairs, essentially, broadcast the same theses that are proclaimed in the UN resolution: giving up territories, return of refugees, peacekeepers, and so on! Well, the phrasing is different, the language is diplomatic, but the decisions are the same.”

“Moreover, Oskanyan and other responsible Armenian politicians remain silent about the most important issue: why is the status of Nagorno Karabakh not addressed in the same package with the demand of surrender of occupied territories? For Serzh Sargsyan himself at a certain point said that Armenia was occupying the territories exactly in order to have an exchange object.”

“Hence, the question, for what the Armenian authorities are exchanging the territories, also becomes a central one. During all the negotiation process between Yerevan and Baku, the parties have been speaking of the necessity of mutual compromises. Meanwhile, it has been clear from the start that Azerbaijan and personally president Ilham Aliyev have nothing to surrender – he could only publicly abandon Karabakh and face an instant cruel punishment from his own circle.”

“This 'uncomfortable' situation was specially and very foresightedly created by Aliyev himself who would daily repeat that he would not surrender Karabakh, although his father, Geydar Aliyev, was very close to doing it, and in one of interviews was himself explaining to journalists that Karabakh was lost irrevocably.”

“This was not allowed by Armenian politicians who were cultivating in the society ideas of tolerance and necessity of concessions. The decision ripened naturally: you have spoken of concessions – concede.”

“Whole delegations from Azerbaijan would visit Yerevan without trouble, carrying back to Baku pleasant reminiscences of Armenian hospitality, but just in a day, outbursting in their press with torrents of lies and rage. ”

“By contrast, Armenians were not allowed to approach Baku even at a distance, and as for strayed wrestlers and chess players of Armenian nationality but not of Armenian citizenship who would not even suspect, to what extent emotions were heated, were just deported from the country.”

“Thus the Armenian authorities were systematically preparing public conscience of their country to the inevitability of surrendering their positions, in which they were wholeheartedly and most ardently aided by western specialists, the likes of Alain Deletroz. The latter has the equal pleasure in discoursing upon the greatness of political genius of Serzh Sargsyan, who is speaking of the possibility of Armenia's recognition of Kosovo's independence but excluding the chance that Yerevan might recognize Nagorno Karabakh.”

“All that the Armenian side has on the negotiation table today is the logical result of political pliability of Armenian negotiators who are caring mostly about the stability of their own situation, not of the principal position of their country.”

“Why does Armenia have to recognize Kosovo, if it openly defies the Kosovo precedent? What is it gaining? Based on this logic, nobody should be concerned with the very Yerevan's position on Kosovo, for it is nothing else than an act of support of Kosovo independence.”

“Wasn't it more correct to state that recognition of Kosovo by the USA gave Armenia a moral right to recognize Karabakh that is by no means worse, and even more valid than the Kosovo counterpart?”

“It would be more correct, but also more dangerous. Armenian authorities today lack confidence in the firmness of their positions to present such an affront, and this is also an achievement of western partners.”

“Thus the USA is preparing a new precedent – the Karabakh one, that will allow them to coolly dismiss Russia's rhetorical assaults. Strategical partner of Russia, member of SCTO, Armenia has become handy at the most appropriate moment. It is not relying much on the help of Russia, since it itself at a certain point maximally distanced Nagorno Karabakh from Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr, hearings on which were recently held by the State Duma.”

“And what about Russia? It looks like they in Moscow have started to gradually retreat from lulling forecasts of some experts on the 'Everything is quiet in Baghdad' theme. Nevertheless, time has been irrevocably lost, a one-sided line of conduct has been created, and all interests and guarantees put in one basket. Besides, Russian Bryza is missing…”

“And what Mssrs. opposition leaders have achieved?”

“Ex-president of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan who directly stated that he had chosen a tactics of winning power through destruction of the republic's state institutes, could not expect a tender treatment of his person and his comrades-in-arms from the acting authorities. He chose the radical line of struggle and received a tough radical response. It is sad that Levon Ter-Petrosyan was realizing his strategy by means of wide popular masses, hence the authorities' strike hit their own people.”

“It is revealing that Ter-Petrosyan in his last speeches was appealing to the interference of the west; he also expressed surprise with their position. It makes sense to suppose that the surprise was absolutely sincere, for the ex-president relied a great deal on such support.”

“Besides, such support was, probably, promised. Today, when his actions led to a total forceful defeat of the opposition camp, to the imprisonment of his close associates and simply supporters, to the death of people and weakening of the international standing of his state, it would be appropriate to think, was the game worth the candle?”

“For today, nobody of the western colleagues, to whom Ter-Petrosyan appeals, is not speaking of the necessity of rerunning election. Accounts of international observers became tougher after the crackdown, but the fact of the election's being accomplished is not questioned.”

“First foreign leader who congratulated Sargsyan was Nikolas Sarkozy, president of France, a country especially close to Ter-Petrosyan. The results of the second advent of this Armenian politician turned out to be lamentable. The opposition team, using a proven technology, managed in the shortest time possible to raise a powerful wave of pubic protest that broke against the wall of rigid and relentlessly tough power.”

“There should not be another wave, the public cannot allow anarchy in the streets of the Armenian capital. Nevertheless, Armenia's authorities will have to pray for forgiveness and build anew their international liberal reputation, which they will be allowed to do in the field of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.”

“It is no coincidence that, while president-elect Serzh Sargsyan is assuring his country's population of his commitment to the ideals of democracy, Yerevan and Baku concurrently advertise his coming meeting with Ilham Aliyev at a NATO summit in Bucharest.”

“As for Ter-Petrosyan, 'the moor has done his duty;' the next entrance of this political heavyweight is possible under the pretext of either defending Karabakh, if the authorities ultimately sign a document on Armenia's one-sided concessions, or of defending democracy and fighting corruption in Armenia, if they do not do that.”

“And Russia will have to succumb to watching a new technology in which a pro-western opposition leader does not come to power, but the state authorities themselves start acting in a regime required by the west.”